Well my friends, it’s been a long time since Sol has done this type of Tango. After months and months of very quiet solar activity (yes, quiet, regardless of what various talking heads have said on this subject), suddenly yesterday we saw a major uptick in solar flares in the low to mid M-Class range.
This is the Solar Flare info from the Russian Tesis website (which I find to be more accurate than the usual western agency sites).
We’ve had 10 M-Class Flares in the past day and a half, according to Tesis, ranging from very low M1.0 up to an M4.2 late last night and an M5.5 yesterday evening. Meanwhile, Solarham and their auto feeds through US agencies are only showing 6 M-Class flares.
We had a minor G1 geomagnetic storm last night around midnight UTC, but all is back to calm again for the moment, as it seemed to be a single short lived spike.
What I found very interesting is that on the Solarham feed (below left) we see a massive Proton spike at just before midnight, and then on the ACE proton feed, (below right) we have a pile of missing data, where the feed just cuts out for hours. If you look at the Tesis Flare list above, you’ll note that the 3 M-Class solar flares that happened after midnight last night, there is no information on the Active Region!! We assume it’s from spot 2673…. but with a blank out of the information, we don’t really know.
Below are two images of the Sun showing the positions of the sun spots, and the second image (in greens) shows the magnetic qualities of the Sunspot. The spot that is currently generating the M-Class flares is 2673, which is a pretty good size and is showing a Beta Gamma Delta configuration- which means that it’s magnetically complex. Spot 2674 is larger, but has a simple Beta configuration that is quite divided and unlikely to become complex.
According to the LASCO updates last night on Solarham: “LASCO C2 and C3 is showing a fast moving, asymmetrical halo coronal mass ejection (CME) generated by the M5.5 event around region 2673. Judging by the video, a portion of the plasma cloud appears to be headed towards Earth. An updated CME tracking model shows an impact to our geomagnetic field possible by late September 6th. Geomagnetic storming will be likely should such an impact take place. More updates to follow whenever necessary.”
Right now Solarham is showing a 60% chance of further M-Class flares and a 20% chance of an X-Class flare. The Sunspot 2673 that we are currently closely watching is now rotating into direct Earth facing view- not just facing Earth, but Magnetically connecting to Earth, and it will remain within close proximity for a couple of days till it rotates out of view. Now, we haven’t had an X-Class flare since May 5th 2015, and given the size of this spot, I’m not really all that worried that it will suddenly spit out a high level X-Class flare, but given the current level of fuckery going one, who really knows? Tomorrow we should see a geomagnetic storm from the M5.5 flare last night, so regardless, I would advise people to just be aware. We KNOW that these geomagnetic storms DO effect animals and humans, on a physical and mental level. So just be aware and perhaps take things a bit slower tomorrow.
I’ll post any updates should things get more exciting, lol.